Methodology

Every constant, and what kind of figure it is.

The model behind thecommercial facility calculator holds 48 constants drawn from 26 sources. 7 of those sources are published third-party figures, 5 are our decompositions of published totals, and 14 are our own assumptions. The last number is the largest, and that is worth knowing before you rely on any of it.

How the arithmetic works

Every figure is an interval — a low and a high — not a point, because every published input it is calibrated against is a band. Intervals add, subtract, multiply and divide the ordinary way, with two consequences worth stating plainly.

profit.low = revenue.low − cost.HIGH profit.high = revenue.high − cost.low

The worst case for profit pairs the lowest revenue with the highest cost. Writing it the intuitive way — low minus low — describes no world that can occur, and it fails optimistically, which is the one direction a cost model must not fail in.

payback.low = build.low ÷ profit.high payback.high = build.high ÷ profit.low

Payback divides two intervals, and monthly profit is allowed to straddle zero. When it does there is a best case and no worst case, so the model reports the best case and says so, rather than printing an average of “sixteen months” and “never”.

Break-even is computed differently, on purpose

Break-even utilization is solved at the midpoint of every band rather than as an interval. An interval version is computable, but “somewhere between 21% and 41%” is not a number anyone can act on. The band across our cost range is reported as a secondary figure instead.

Profit is piecewise-linear in utilization with one downward step, where staffing coverage increases above 45%. The model solves each piece separately and keeps only a root falling inside its own piece. A simple search would converge on a root the step has already invalidated.

What sits outside operating cost

Debt service is reported on its own line and deliberately excluded from operating cost, so that operating profit stays comparable to how operators talk and break-even utilization stays comparable to the published benchmarks it is checked against.

The worked reference venue

4 bays at $50 per bay-hour, 12 hours a day, 30 days a month, at the published first-year utilization of 33%, suburban rent, mid-tier equipment, packaged food and beverage, owner on the floor, 2,100 sq ft, no financing.

Capacity1,440 bay-hours
Billed at 33%475.2 bay-hours
Revenue$21,384 – $26,374
Operating cost$17,559 – $31,434
Operating profit−$10,050 to $8,815
Break-even utilization33.8%
Break-even billed hours486
Break-even rate$51 per bay-hour
Revenue per bay per year$71,636
Build cost$145,000 – $335,000

At the published first-year utilization this venue is roughly break-even with a range that straddles zero. It is not a story about a facility that prints money, and it is not a story about one that cannot work. It is a knife-edge, and which side it lands on depends on decisions — the lease, the manager, the rate — that are usually still open when someone runs a calculator.

Calibration

Where a published figure exists only as a total, the model's decomposition is chosen so the reference venue reproduces that total exactly. These are checks, not coincidences.

Model outputComputedPublished
Four-bay build-out$50,000 – $150,000$50,000 – $150,000
Four-bay total build, mid tier$145,000 – $335,000$200,000 – $300,000 typical
Four-bay footprint2,100 sq ft2,000 – 4,000 sq ft
Break-even billed hours486210 – 640
Revenue per bay per year$71,636$45,000 – $90,000

One reconciliation is worth spelling out, because it is why the interface defines utilization every time it uses the word. At $50 per bay-hour, the published $45,000–$90,000 per bay per year works out to 75–150 billed hours a month against 360 available on a twelve-hour day — 21% to 42% of total open hours. The published first-year average of 33% sits comfortably inside it. But the published mature range of 50–65%, applied to a full twelve-hour day, implies about $119,000 per bay per year, a third above the published ceiling. The likeliest explanation is that mature utilization is quoted against a prime window rather than the whole open day. The calculator therefore states which one it means, and flags any configuration drifting outside the published revenue band — including configurations that look good.

The constants

Grouped by what kind of figure each source is. Retrieved 7 August 2026.

published7 sources

Reproduced as published by a third party. Every one has a URL you can check.

golfoclock

Break-even is described at $75–$100 per bay-hour, requiring 210–640 billed hours per month for a four-bay venue.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/indoor-golf-business-cost

benchBreakEvenHours210 – 640
benchBreakEvenRate75 – 100

golfoclock / Sports Carnival

Per-bay commercial equipment: entry $10,000–$18,000; mid-range $20,000–$35,000 (described as the sweet spot for most commercial facilities); premium $40,000–$70,000; radar-based tour systems $45,000–$90,000.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/indoor-golf-business-cost

equipmentPerBay.entry10000 – 18000
equipmentPerBay.mid20000 – 35000
equipmentPerBay.premium40000 – 70000
equipmentPerBay.tour45000 – 90000

golfoclock

Allocate 5–8% of annual equipment cost as a maintenance reserve.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/indoor-golf-business-cost

maintenanceReserveAnnualPct0.05 – 0.08

golfoclock

A core four-bay venue needs to cover roughly $21,000–$48,000 per month to stay neutral.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/indoor-golf-business-cost

benchMonthlyCost4Bay21000 – 48000

industry benchmark

Commercial simulator installations report estimated annual revenue of $45,000–$90,000 per bay, depending on location, pricing model and utilization.

https://www.birdiegrow.com/resources/golf-simulator-business-revenue

benchRevPerBayYear45000 – 90000

golfoclock, 200+ venues

Year-two and year-three performance at well-run venues routinely reaches 50–65% utilization.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/golf-simulator-profitability

benchUtilMature0.5 – 0.65

golfoclock, 200+ venues

First-year bay utilization averages approximately 33%; a 28–41% range is described as achievable but not guaranteed for a four-bay venue.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/golf-simulator-profitability

benchUtilYear10.28 – 0.41
benchUtilYear1Avg0.33

derived5 sources

Our decomposition or unit conversion of a published total. The total each was fitted to is named in the description — we published the split, not the source.

derived from the published build-out band

Split into a fixed base of $26,000–$62,000 plus $6,000–$22,000 per bay, chosen so that a four-bay venue reproduces the published $50,000–$150,000 build-out band exactly. The split itself is not published; only the four-bay total is.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/indoor-golf-business-cost

buildOutBase26000 – 62000
buildOutPerBay6000 – 22000

published four-bay figure ÷ 4

The published $500–$1,200 per month for a four-bay venue, divided by four to give $125–$300 per bay per month. Assumes consumables scale linearly with bay count.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/indoor-golf-business-cost

consumablesPerBay125 – 300

published annual figure ÷ 12

The published $1,000–$3,000 per bay per year, divided by twelve to give $83–$250 per bay per month.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/indoor-golf-business-cost

courseLicensePerBayMo83 – 250

derived from a competitor's implied figure

Pioneer Golf's calculator defaults to $2,000/month of food and beverage at 3 bays, 45% utilization, 12 hours and 30 days — 583 billed bay-hours, or $3.43 per billed bay-hour. Our packaged tier floor of $4 is calibrated just above that.

https://www.pioneergolfco.com/facility-revenue-calculator

fbAttachPerHour.packaged4 – 8

fitted to the published venue footprint

Default footprint is 300 sq ft per bay plus 900 sq ft of shared space (back-of-house, restrooms, bar, circulation). At four bays this gives 2,100 sq ft, inside the published 2,000–4,000 sq ft four-bay band. The published 250–400 sq ft per bay evidently excludes shared space, since four bays at that rate would give only 1,000–1,600 sq ft.

https://golfoclock.com/blog/indoor-golf-business-cost

sqFtPerBay300
sqFtShared900

assumption14 sources

Our own judgement. No external source. There are more of these than of the other two kinds combined, which is precisely why they are labelled.

our assumption

Booking, point-of-sale, door access and CRM software assumed at $150–$400 per month for a single venue.

No external source. This is our assumption.

bookingPosCrm150 – 400

our assumption

Staffing coverage multiplier: 1.3 staff-equivalents during staffed hours at baseline, rising to 1.7 above 45% utilization, plus 0.6 when a kitchen is operating. Two hours per day are added for open and close. Our judgement, not a published staffing model.

No external source. This is our assumption.

coverageBase1.3
coverageBusy1.7
coverageKitchenAdd0.6
coverageBusyThreshold0.45
openCloseHours2

our assumption

Food and beverage revenue per billed bay-hour: packaged $4–$8, full bar $10–$18, bar and kitchen $16–$30. Modelled per billed hour rather than as a flat monthly figure so that it scales with the traffic that generates it, and per hour rather than as a percentage of simulator revenue because attach is driven by people in the bay, not by the bay rate.

No external source. This is our assumption.

fbAttachPerHour.none0
fbAttachPerHour.bar10 – 18
fbAttachPerHour.bar_kitchen16 – 30

our assumption

Food and beverage cost of goods: packaged 35–50%, full bar 22–30%, bar and kitchen 28–36%. Packaged carries the worst margin because retail canned and pre-made goods are bought at near-retail cost, which is counter-intuitive and therefore surfaced in the interface.

No external source. This is our assumption.

fbCogsRate.none0
fbCogsRate.packaged0.35 – 0.5
fbCogsRate.bar0.22 – 0.3
fbCogsRate.bar_kitchen0.28 – 0.36

our assumption

A hired general manager is assumed to cost $4,500–$7,500 per month fully loaded. Applied only when staffing is set to managed.

No external source. This is our assumption.

gmSalary4500 – 7500

our assumption

Liquor licence capital cost of $3,000–$25,000 where a bar is operated. The true range across US jurisdictions is far wider than this — some quota states run into six figures — so this band understates the tail.

No external source. This is our assumption.

liquorLicense3000 – 25000

our assumption

Fully loaded hourly wage of $19–$27, being roughly $15–$21 base plus a 1.25 payroll load for taxes, workers compensation and benefits. Varies widely by state.

No external source. This is our assumption.

loadedWage19 – 27

our assumption

Ongoing marketing assumed at $1,200–$3,500 per month for a single venue. Modelled as flat rather than per-bay because it is driven by the trade area, not the bay count.

No external source. This is our assumption.

marketing1200 – 3500

our assumption

Card processing assumed at 2.6–3.2% of gross revenue, the usual small-merchant range. Applied to all revenue, since a venue of this type takes almost nothing in cash.

No external source. This is our assumption.

merchantFeeRate0.026 – 0.032

our assumption

General liability and property insurance $350–$900 per month; accounting and legal $200–$600 per month.

No external source. This is our assumption.

insurance350 – 900
accountingLegal200 – 600

our assumption

Realized revenue per billed hour is assumed to be 82–95% of rack rate, absorbing leagues, memberships, off-peak pricing and comps. No published figure was found for this discount; it is our judgement and it moves every revenue number on the page.

No external source. This is our assumption.

realizedRateFactor0.82 – 0.95

our assumption

Triple-net-inclusive rent per square foot per year by market type: rural $14–$22, suburban $20–$32, urban $28–$45, prime $40–$65. Commercial rent is intensely local and these bands are indicative only — a real lease quote should replace them.

No external source. This is our assumption.

rentPerSqFtYr.rural14 – 22
rentPerSqFtYr.suburban20 – 32
rentPerSqFtYr.urban28 – 45
rentPerSqFtYr.prime40 – 65

our assumption

Pre-opening soft costs of $15,000–$45,000: permits, architectural and design fees, lease deposits, opening inventory and signage. Distinct from build-out, which is the physical work.

No external source. This is our assumption.

softCosts15000 – 45000

our assumption

Utilities modelled as $90–$180 per bay per month (projectors, computers, conditioned air over a tall volume) plus a $400–$900 base for HVAC, water and trash, plus $120–$300 for internet and phone.

No external source. This is our assumption.

utilitiesPerBay90 – 180
utilitiesBase400 – 900
internetPhone120 – 300

Cost segments

The model tracks 8 cost segments and folds them into 5 bands for the stacked bar. Not a simplification for its own sake: 8 categorical colours cannot hold the contrast separations this design system requires on an eight-pixel bar, and 5 measured swatches already exist. The itemised list below the bar still shows all 8.

BandModel segmentsReference venue
RentRent and occupancy$4,550
LabourLabour$10,764
F&B costF&B cost of goods$1,283
SystemsUtilities, Software and licensing, Maintenance and consumables$3,824
OverheadMarketing, Insurance, admin and card fees$4,075

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